What is the Belt and Road initiative?
In former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s words, it was important to “hide your strength and bide your time.”
That’s why the Belt and Road initiative marks a huge change in China’s foreign policy.
And it’s not just a small shift.
It’s a plan that will have serious implications for how the world develops.
Called “yi dai yi lu” in Chinese, the Belt and Road initiative was first announced
by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013.
It’s a globe-spanning plan with the purpose of strengthening trade, infrastructure
and investment links between China and an estimated 65 other countries.
Together, potentially participating countries account for more than 30 percent of global GDP,
62 percent of the world’s population and 75 percent of known energy reserves.
Despite what the name may imply, “the road” actually refers to a maritime network
of shipping lanes running from China, through Southeast Asia, Africa and all the way to Europe.
The “belt,” on the other hand, refers to overland routes stretching through central Asia to Europe.
The most visible part of the Belt and Road so far has been infrastructure.
In Kenya, for example, China built a $3.2 billion railway,
connecting the port city of Mombasa to the country’s capital Nairobi.
It now takes just four and a half hours to get between the two cities
— about a third of the time it used to take on the old rail system.
But it’s not just Kenya.
Across the world, the Belt and Road has meant billions of dollars in investment from the Chinese.
In Sri Lanka, about $200 million of Chinese funding went into the country’s second international airport.
After all that investment, though, it’s been dubbed the world’s emptiest international airport.
From Africa to Asia, there are many infrastructure projects involving railways, roads and bridges,
but that’s just one part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Some say it’s also serving as a huge marketing campaign for Chinese money looking for investment.
Yet despite the public nature of the Belt and Road, there is a lot about this huge plan that we don’t know about.
The number of countries estimated to be in this initiative is between 60 and 115,
while the money committed is said to be between $1 trillion and $8 trillion.
And then there’s the question of who’s coordinating this.
It’s definitely backed by President Xi,
while China’s powerful state planner NDRC was involved in initial policy planning.
But in terms of execution?
Experts believe Chinese state-owned enterprises have the most influence
in terms of what the Belt and Road will ultimately look like.
What we do know is that the Belt and Road will be made up of several economic corridors.
All but one of the corridors connect several countries, like this route which connects China to the Netherlands.
It will include projects like this cargo train that carries goods from east China to London in about two weeks.
But let’s take a closer look at the only corridor connected to just one country,
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Pakistan is seen as the buckle in the belt.
It was reportedly promised more than $60 billion in Chinese investments,
although experts think the actual figure is closer to $20 billion.
This corridor would link China’s far western region of Xinjiang to Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar.
This is an important trading route for China, particularly because of the country’s location
between China and its energy suppliers in Africa and the Middle East.
You see, China has a huge appetite for energy.
It’s the world’s largest oil importer and is set to be the biggest gas importer too.
But Pakistan may have gotten more than it was expecting when it took China’s loans.
The country’s prime minister, celebrity cricketer Imran Khan, is fighting to keep the economy afloat,
and some are worried that Pakistan’s debts to China may ultimately hurt those efforts.
But it’s not just Pakistan or even China which got more than it bargained for.
There’s a lot of talk now on debt trap diplomacy, which involves the Belt and Road.
The Washington-based Center for Global Development raised serious concerns
about eight nations receiving Belt and Road financing.
They include Pakistan, the Maldives, Mongolia and even Djibouti,
a country of less than one million where China has its only overseas military base.
The think tank said those nations’ mounting debts to China
put their economies at risk of potential widespread defaults.
China faced setbacks when some countries’ leaders,
who had signed onto Belt and Road projects, did not regain power.
One example: Malaysia’s new government which moved to cancel a $20 billion dollar rail project.
And there’s the Maldives, which opened a bridge with Chinese funds.
Now, it wants to renegotiate its debt to China.
Even when it looks like China has a winning hand, like when it took control of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port
after the country couldn’t make repayments, locals protested what they called a colonial invasion.
And then there are the reports about geopolitical ambitions underlying the Belt and Road.
Beijing says the Belt and Road is purely a peaceful economic project without geopolitical or military intent.
But developments like its military projects with Pakistan have some experts questioning that.
They worry Beijing has military intentions for some of the ports at which it has a large presence,
like that Sri Lankan port it took over.
The Belt and Road provides financing for infrastructure, which a lot of countries are desperate for.
But now, as worries mount, we’re left to see what’s next for China’s ambitious program.
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